ObservanceTuesday, February 2, 2027
Groundhog Day
- Date
- Recurs
- Every year on February 2
- Category
- Celebration
Groundhog Day falls on February 2, when a groundhog is lifted from a stump on a hill outside Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania and a man in a top hat announces whether winter has six more weeks to run. The custom arrived with German-speaking immigrants to Pennsylvania, who had attached the same Candlemas weather lore to a badger. It is also the rare American tradition whose central claim a federal agency has tested and rejected: NOAA's published track record finds no predictive skill in it.
History
February 2 is Candlemas, and the day carried weather lore in Europe for centuries before any groundhog was involved. John Ray's 1678 collection preserves the couplet in its most familiar form: "If Candlemas day be fair and bright / Winter will have another flight." In German-speaking Europe the day was also Dachstag, Badger Day, and the animal watched was the badger — if it saw its shadow it went back underground for four more weeks. That is the Library of Congress's account, following the folklorist Don Yoder. The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club's own history says hedgehog instead, and the two versions have never been reconciled.
Pennsylvania Dutch immigration ran from about 1727 to 1775, and the Library of Congress judges it likely that the American custom took shape in that period — likely, not documented. No source traces an unbroken line from European practice to the American one. The earliest known American reference, a Pennsylvania diary entry of 1840 found by Yoder, has the groundhog returning underground for forty days, not six weeks.
Punxsutawney enters the record in 1886, when the club says the phrase "groundhog day" first appeared in the local newspaper. February 2 of the following year, 1887, brought the first organized trek to Gobbler's Knob. Who organized it is contested: the Hagley Museum and Library credits the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club under the town's newspaper editor, Clymer H. Freas; the Library of Congress credits the local Elks Lodge. The groundhog was not called Punxsutawney Phil until the 1960s.
Timeline
- 1678 — John Ray prints the Candlemas couplet in its familiar form: "If Candlemas day be fair and bright / Winter will have another flight."
- 1727–1775 — The period of Pennsylvania Dutch immigration in which the Library of Congress says the American holiday likely took shape.
- 1840 — The earliest known American reference to groundhog weather prediction, a Pennsylvania diary entry, which gives forty days rather than six weeks.
- 1886 — The phrase "groundhog day" first appears in the Punxsutawney newspaper, according to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club.
- February 2, 1887 — The first organized trek to Gobbler's Knob. Hagley credits the Groundhog Club; the Library of Congress credits the local Elks Lodge.
- December 27, 2006 — The 1993 film Groundhog Day is added to the Library of Congress's National Film Registry.
How to observe
Gobbler's Knob sits almost two miles uphill from the Punxsutawney parking lots, and the club runs buses from three designated areas starting at 3 a.m. The stage entertainment starts then too, fireworks go off just after 6:30, and the prognostication happens at sunrise, around 7:20. It is standing room only in a rustic field in February: the club advises cash, no backpacks or bags, and says small children should not attend. Pennsylvania's tourism office streamed the 2026 ceremony free at visitpa.com with a second feed at pacast.com, and its Groundhog Day page is where the following year's links appear.
The better reason to mark the day is NOAA's scorecard. "Grading the groundhogs" ranks nineteen prognosticating animals with records of twenty years or more, and Punxsutawney Phil places seventeenth. Staten Island Chuck leads at 85 percent. In the 2026 edition, second place went to Lander Lil, who is a statue of a prairie dog in Wyoming. Reading that list teaches more about forecasting than any explanation of why a groundhog cannot do it.
Frequently asked questions
Is Groundhog Day always February 2?
Yes. The date is fixed. In 2027 it falls on a Tuesday.
How accurate is Punxsutawney Phil?
Four federal figures exist and they do not agree. NOAA's "Grading the groundhogs" puts him at 35 percent, scored against U.S. February and March temperature averages from 2006 to 2025. NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information says 30 percent over the past ten years. The Library of Congress says about 40 percent and cites nothing for it. The most useful number is the raw one: NOAA's published track record for 1887 through 2017 counts 103 shadows, 18 no-shadows and 10 years with no record, and concludes that the table shows "no predictive skill for the groundhog during the most recent years of this analysis."
Was the original animal a badger or a hedgehog?
Contested. The Library of Congress, following Don Yoder, and Smithsonian Magazine both say badger — Candlemas was Dachstag, Badger Day, across much of German-speaking Europe. The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club says German lore used the hedgehog. Nothing resolves it.
Where does "six more weeks of winter" come from?
Not from the European lore, as far as the record goes. The German badger version gave four more weeks. The 1840 Pennsylvania diary and Hagley's account of the Candlemas belief both give forty days. No reputable source traces the six-week figure back to Europe.
Is Groundhog Day a federal holiday?
No. Federal offices, banks and post offices operate normally. Pennsylvania promotes the day through its state tourism office, which is a different thing.
When is Groundhog Day?
| Year | Date | Day |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | February 2 | Tuesday |
| 2028 | February 2 | Wednesday |
| 2029 | February 2 | Friday |
| 2030 | February 2 | Saturday |
| 2031 | February 2 | Sunday |
Sources
- Library of Congress, Folklife Today, Groundhog Day: Ancient Origins of a Modern Celebration (Stephen Winick) — https://blogs.loc.gov/folklife/2022/02/groundhog-day-ancient-origins-of-a-modern-celebration/ → Candlemas on February 2; John Ray's 1678 couplet; Dachstag, Badger Day, and the badger as the Candlemas weather prophet across much of German-speaking Europe, citing Don Yoder; four more weeks of winter; Pennsylvania Dutch immigration 1727–1775 and the judgment that the holiday likely took shape then; the 1840 Pennsylvania diary entry and its forty days; the local Elks Lodge as the 1887 organizers; the naming of Punxsutawney Phil in the 1960s.
- Hagley Museum and Library, The first observance of Groundhog Day in Punxsatawney, Pennsylvania — https://www.hagley.org/research/news/hagley-vault/first-observance-groundhog-day-punxsatawney-pennsylvania → February 2, 1887 as the first observance, hosted by the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club and led by the town's newspaper editor Clymer H. Freas; the forty days of snow and cold predicted by a sunny Candlemas; German immigration to Pennsylvania in the 18th and 19th centuries.
- Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, What is Groundhog Day? — https://www.groundhog.org/groundhog-day/what-is-groundhog-day/ → 1886 as the first appearance of Groundhog Day in the local newspaper and the following year as the first official trek to Gobbler's Knob; the club's hedgehog version of the German lore.
- Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, History and Past Predictions — https://www.groundhog.org/groundhog-day/history-past-predictions/ → the Punxsutawney Spirit credited with printing news of the first observance in 1886; the 1993 Columbia Pictures release.
- Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, Frequently Asked Questions — https://www.groundhog.org/groundhog-day/frequently-asked-questions/ → buses from three designated areas starting at 3 a.m.; stage entertainment from 3 a.m.; fireworks just after 6:30 a.m.; the prognostication at sunrise, about 7:20 a.m.; Gobbler's Knob almost two miles uphill from the downtown parking lots.
- Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, What to Expect — https://www.groundhog.org/groundhog-day/what-to-expect/ → a rustic location and standing room only; bring cash; leave backpacks and bags at home; the recommendation that small children not attend.
- NOAA, Grading the groundhogs — https://www.noaa.gov/heritage/stories/grading-groundhogs → Punxsutawney Phil at 35 percent and 17th of 19; scoring against U.S. February and March temperature averages for each year from 2006 to 2025; the twenty-year qualifying rule; Staten Island Chuck first at 85 percent; Lander Lil, a prairie dog statue in Wyoming, second in the February 2026 edition.
- NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, What Will Punxsutawney Phil's Six-Week Weather Prediction Be? — https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/groundhog-day-forecasts-and-climate-history → 30 percent accuracy over the past ten years, measured against U.S. national temperatures.
- NOAA National Climatic Data Center, Groundhog Day — https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/customer-support/education-resources/groundhog-day → the 1887–2017 track record of 103 shadows, 18 no-shadows and 10 years with no record, and the finding of no predictive skill during the most recent years of the analysis.
- Library of Congress, Everyday Mysteries, Can a groundhog's shadow really predict if there will be six more weeks of winter? — https://www.loc.gov/everyday-mysteries/meteorology-climatology/item/groundhog-shadow/ → the roughly 40 percent figure, which the page gives without a citation, and the statement that the shadow lore has no scientific basis.
- Smithsonian Magazine, A Short History of Groundhog Day — https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/short-history-groundhog-day-180958018/ → the badger as the animal watched in ancient Germanic practice.
- Library of Congress, Films Added to National Film Registry for 2006 — https://www.loc.gov/item/prn-06-234/films-added-to-national-film-registry-for-2006/2006-12-27 → Groundhog Day added to the National Film Registry, announced December 27, 2006.
- Pennsylvania tourism office, Media Advisory: Pennsylvania to Host Groundhog Day 2026 — https://www.visitpa.com/articles/post/media-advisory-february-2-pennsylvania-to-host-groundhog-day-2026/ → the free livestream at visitpa.com and the second feed at pacast.com.
Source conflicts, resolved and disclosed. First, 1886 versus 1887: the club's own pages distinguish the two, 1886 being the first newspaper mention and 1887 the first organized trek, and this page follows that split rather than picking a founding year. Second, who organized the 1887 trek: Hagley says the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club under the editor Clymer H. Freas, the Library of Congress says the local Elks Lodge, and nothing reconciles them, so both are named. Third, badger versus hedgehog: the Library of Congress citing Don Yoder, and Smithsonian, say badger; the founding organization says hedgehog; both are named. Fourth, accuracy: four federal figures disagree, so the page gives the spread and leads with NOAA's raw tally rather than averaging them.
Not claimed, for want of a source: any attendance figure (the club says over 30,000 for 2025, the Associated Press says about 10,000 in recent years, Pennsylvania's tourism office projected 40,000, and the club's own page contradicts itself at 35,000 for 1997 — there is no audited count); that Clymer Freas edited the Punxsutawney Spirit specifically, founded the holiday, or named Phil (Hagley says only that he was the town's newspaper editor and led the club); Phil's age or that he is the same groundhog seen in 1887, which is the club's own claim; any before-and-after attendance or economic figure for the 1993 film; and that the 1886 newspaper item can be read against a digitized original, which could not be confirmed.
Rejected as sources: nationaltoday, nationaldaycalendar, checkiday, timeanddate, history.com, and content-farm or AI-generated listicles. Encyclopaedia Britannica's Groundhog Day article was reachable but its body text did not retrieve, so nothing here is cited to it.
Add to your calendarA calendar file for Apple Calendar, Google Calendar or Outlook. The event repeats every year. You can also subscribe to this observance or to the whole calendar.
← See everything February 2 celebrates